roughalmasis

Wednesday, December 16

<constitution making in kenya>

Monday, December 14

CONSTITUTION MAKING IN KENYA
HARMONISED DRAFT
1. INTRODUCTION
‘[Government] exposes people to the same miseries…which we might expect in a country without government, our calamities is heightened by reflecting that we furnish the means by which we suffer.’ - Thomas Paine

Now that Kenyan’s have been given a chance to have their say I will give my input. I am yet to see anything in the ‘’Road Map’’ on how I will know whether my view has been considered or not. I know I am a cynic and a minority but I will give my views anyway. In a year or two I will know whether I was right or wrong.

2. NOT GODS
When I was a student, Prof Mazrui gave a talk at Taifa Hall, University of Nairobi. When he was through, we were given a chance to ask questions or comment. What was ingrained in my mind was Okot P Bitek the Emcee, shouting and imploring us ‘Come on ! Ask questions. The Professor is not a god’. I want my opening salvo to be: the Coe’s are not gods. This takes me to Mark Twain ‘Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself.’ Change Congress to Coe’s and we can discuss constitution making.

3. OLD OR NEW CONSTITUTION
‘Much of the social history of the Western world, over the past three decades, has been a history of replacing what has worked with what sounded good. In area after area - crime, education, housing, race relations--the situation has gotten worse after the bright new theories were put into operation. The amazing thing is that this history of failure and disaster has neither discouraged the social engineers nor discredited them.’ - Thomas Sowell

I am still wondering whether we need a new constitution. Will the statecraft of our famous lawyers work ? Only time will tell !

4. ONE BIG LIE
‘Tyrants often use propaganda techniques that rely on the following. (1) Repetition of catchwords, (2) Suppression of facts the propagandist wants the public to ignore. (3) Inflaming mass fear or other strong emotional reaction for the purpose of controlling public opinion and behaviour’ - Aldous Huxley

We have been given the impression that the constitution is the panacea to all our problems. We are told it is the supreme law in the land. In mathematical language it is the set and all the others: IIEC, IIBRC, IICDRC, TJRC, NCIC, Police reforms, Judicial reforms, Land reforms etc. sub sets. If structuring of the set is through, how come the sub-sets are still being structured ? Is constitution making one big lie Here I am only thinking of (2) above by Aldous Huxley

5. MORE GOVERNMENT LESS GOVERNMENT AND CONTRADICTIONS
‘When you find that you are on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect.’ - Mark Twain

Do Kenyan’s want more Government or less Government ? I congratulate the Coe’s for reducing the cabinet from 40 to 20 and increasing the other arms from 3500 to 5500 plus, I suppose in the name of bringing Governance to the people. Is this a contradiction or (2) again in One Big Lie. Remember “More government always translates into less freedom.”- Unknown

6. PRESIDENTIAL OR PARLIAMENTARY, HYBRID OR KOFI ANNAN
‘Sometimes it is said that man cannot be trusted with the government of himself. Can he, then, be trusted with the government of others?’ - Thomas Jefferson, in his 1801 inaugural address

I know the Kenyan finds himself between the devil and the deep blue sea. This could be a good excuse for trial and error. Hopefully we won’t commit political suicide. We know what we are running away from ‘the imperial presidency’ but we might not know what we are running into although we have seen pointers. Our good MPs have displayed signs of a rogue parliament and it would be foolhardy to expand this, Akilano Akiwumi Salary Commission notwithstanding. But surely there is the recall clause. Yes I hear you loud and clear. But for me this changes nothing as I wait to see whether Parliament will pass this gem. What I know is that each time our legislators display impunity, to use one of the catch words((1) in One Big Lie), the voters response is fast and furious ‘Wamefanya hivyo, si 2007 inakuja, tutawatoa wote’. What I have never told Kenyan’s is my favourite ‘Mkenya ni Mkenya’ or ‘Mtoto wa chui ni chui’ reason being Kenyan’s think they know too much, me included of couse ! So which one presidential or parliamentary ? Each scares us. So Coe’s have opted for a hybrid of an elected President who doesn’t chair cabinet and a Prime Minister(read parliament) who gets this gift. This doesn’t make sense I hear some Kenyan’s say. The Coes retort is that this is what Kenyan’s wanted. So “motto akililia wembe......’ A respected political analyst has wondered why Coe did not improve on the Kofi Annan or if you like it grand coalition model instead of taking us back to 2005. Here I agree because this was a ceasefire model. Again the 50-50 concept is there somewhere. To crown it when ‘Kazi ianze’ joined ‘Kazi iendelee’, Kenyan’s(meaning I) don’t see the difference between KI and KI. For me it is better the lion we know than 222-300 evolving piranhas. Before you decide whether it is P or P remember ‘No man's life, liberty, or property are safe while the legislature is in session.’ - Mark Twain (1866)

7. SENATE – A KENYAN AND AN OVERGLORIFIED COUNCILLOR(OC)
Kenyan: Suppose you can throw a chair, and suppose you are a councillor in the old constitution, and suppose the Coe’s makes you a senator under the new constitution, would you veto an MP if he increased his salary ?
OC : Why would I veto him ?
Kenyan : Because of checks and balances.
OC : No I would not veto him. I would actually vote him. Due to my long history of earning peanuts, when I am given a check(American English), I withdraw everything. I don’t leave any balance leave alone balances.
Kenyan: And.........eh, sorry, I rest my case. Long live the Senate.

8. DEVOLVED GOVERNMENT – SERVICE DELIVERY OR MILCH COW
‘Remember democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. ‘ - John Adams, letter to John Taylor, April 15, 1814

8.1. Democracy
Does Kenya have stars ? Harambee Stars continue to metamorphose from stars in the sky to grains of sand/soil in the ground, hence Harambee Grains on a journey to the World Cup in South Africa. Paul Tergat, Yes ! Collin Injera, Yes ! Eric Wainaina, Yes ! There are also people we can be proud of in the business world etc. But when it comes to the political world zero. When it comes to democracy zilch. From Government to parastatals, from football to Saccos, from the co-operative movement to the land buying companies, from council’s to the pyramid schemes, name it, from bixa at Tiwi to fish at Wichlum, from miraa in Meru to sugarcane at Awendo, from tea in Kangema to pyrethrum at Olengurone, from maize in Bungoma to fruit at Machakos, from cashewnuts in Kilifi to livestock at Kajiado, from camels in Moyale to coffee in Kirinyaga, from milk in Kericho to bananas in Nyamira, from goats in Baringo etc. Without going into history: KPCU, KFA, Panpaper, Miwani, Muhoroni, Nyaga, Discount etc. Yet most of these institutions are run by democratically elected officials. So Coes objectives of devolution fall flat on the face. I wish they could have given any other justification other than democracy and self-governance. There is no evidence that any elected officials in Kenya can make any sector proud. To me the solution lies elsewhere, certainly not in democracy. When the late Michael Blundell was interviewed by the Nation before he died his words could be instructive. When asked whether he had any regrets, his reply was, ‘Ýes, he regretted that they taught Kenyan’s everything except politics and management’. To me this is still the problem. It cannot be fixed by giving the poor a voters’ card and asking him to elect leaders or management. If anything he votes in mismanagement and waits until the next round. ‘ It is certain…that ignorance, allied with power, is the most ferocious enemy justice can have.’ - James Baldwin, “The Price of the Ticket,” 1972

8.2. Separation of Powers
‘A democracy…[will] only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.’ - Unknown (apparently not Alexander Tytler)

I notice that members of the County Assembly are also the Executive Committee. Surely what happened to the doctrine of separation of powers ? Do I see the makings of village tyrants ?


8.3. Structure
‘Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to
live at the expense of everybody else.’ - Frederic Bastiat, French
Economist (1801-1850)

I have a serious problem with the 3 levels of Government. If the aim is to take governance to the people the counties are enough. The region government has no value addition except for the famous more government more costs.
Solution: Scrap the regional government

8.4. Cost
‘That government is best which governs least.’- Henry David Thoreau

COEs seems to have given little thought to the costs of running the recommended governments. Kenyans don’t want more government. They might want more governance but certainly not government. The other debate is on the number of counties. There is no justification for the 74 counties except the gerrymandering of yesteryears. I thought this is what we want to correct. Some say the current 255 Districts are not viable. Again language of non- economists. The solution is simple. If we agree on the 255 Districts, all we need to agree on is the number of elected members. To assist Kenyan’s to think I suggest 10 members. This will give us a total of 2550 members an improvement of the current scenario. I know you are thinking about infrastructure and capacity. Systematically build on what we have and we will one day get there. Since Kenyans want devolution give them all the districts/counties they want but certainly control the number of governors/councillors.

8.5. From By-laws to Laws
‘The real art of governing consists, so far as possible, in doing nothing.’ - Lao Tse, 600 BC
Why do I get the feeling that this was a prophecy on our councils ? If I were Coe, which I am not, I would have restructured and capacitated the local authorities without necessarily baptising them counties. I know local authorities have executive powers through their by-laws. Surely they don’t need more powers than these. After all what have they done with the current ones from Nairobi to Suneka ? From Malindi to Malaba ? Forget the fallacy that if you elect mayors something will change. To me the solution is to improve the quality of the elected arm and empower/capacitate the executive arm. This will curb the internecine wars between the two arms. More important change the attitude of both from the current unwritten policy “milch cow’’to a written policy ‘service delivery’ and the wars will end.
If Kenyan’s want the devolved government give them. But don’t give these governments powers to make laws. Doing so will kill the Kenya nation by creating ‘tribal bantustans’ and stoking tribal sentiments through legislation in the name of devolved governments.
8.6. Mini Civil Services
What is the justification for the 70 plus mini civil services ? How professional will they be ? Will they attract professionals and skilled workers who are interested in their careers ? Or will they be a dumping ground for homeboys ? This is an unnecessary experiment that should be removed from the draft.

8.7. Borrowing Powers
Article 254(1) gives devolved governments powers to borrow/take loans. I was not able to see who will be the guarantor. Will they tie their own assets ? Suppose they are unable to repay ala KPCU ? Will they be put under receivership ?

9. PUBLIC FINANCE
‘In politics wanting someone else's money is called "need,” wanting to keep your own money is called "greed," and "compassion" is when politicians arrange the transfer.’ - Joseph Sobran

9.1. Poor bakers avaracious consumers
Kenyan’s focus seems to be on dividing and sharing the cake. The dynamics would change if we focused on baking it. There is nothing on revenue generation in the draft but plenty on division and allocation. What an imbalanced way of looking at a country! Over to you COE and don’t give me ’these are the views of Kenyan’s since I have had enough of that.


9.2. Accountability
‘In questions of power, then, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.’ - Thomas Jefferson

I am unable to see how the new constitution will improve on accountability. The current set up does not work. The Controller and Auditor General does a great job. But the findings after scrutiny by PAC and PIC are never implemented. The Draft is silent on PAC and PIC. This is disappointing. I have suggestions on article 262(4) and 262(5).
• The articles should be interchanged.
• 262(5) should become 262(4) and vice versa.
• Action should be prescribed(removal from office and making good of the loss) on 262(4) which now becomes 262(5)
• Linked the new 262(5) to PAC and PIC work.
• The basis of the specified action should be contravention of regulations and instructions.
• Remove contravention of the law from the now 262(5) and create a separate 262(6)
• Specify a separate action for breaking the law.
The reason for this suggestion is to facilitate quick and effective action once regulations and instructions are broken. We don’t have to prove a law has been broken for action to be taken. The current legal labyrinths and mazes(mtego wa panya) are the bane of corruption

9.3. Duplication of oversight
One of the catch words today is strengthening institutions. With all due respect I don’t see what purpose EMU(Efficiency Monitoring Unit), Inspectorate of Parastatals and KACC serve. The first two are for hatchet jobs while KACC is a public relations body – (2) in One Big Lie above. They attempt to duplicate the work of the Auditor General when we know his findings have not been implemented. The only purpose they serve beautifully is creating big government.
Solution: Abolish EMU, Inspectorate of Parastatals and KACC and implement the reports of Controller and Auditor- General - 262(4) now 262(5)

10. LAND
The Kenya land mass is fixed. Land in Kenya is fixed. The population is growing. The challenge is to change the current mind set of believing every Kenyan should own land. Except for the big land owners, few small land owners can make any claim to wealth or happiness. So owning land is not the solution.
11. COMMISSION ON THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CONSTITUTION AND OTHER MONSTROCITIES
‘The mindset of legislating for the betterment of society guarantees the growth of the beast. ... Politicians see government as a solution but the people see government as part of the problem. Beastly bureaucracy is born out of good intentions married to poor solutions. Only when politicians realize what constituents already know will the true problem even be addressed much less solved.’ - R. Lee Wrights

Another toothless bulldog like Ombudusman and KACC. Spare Kenyans extra Government. Leave implementation to Justice(reports to President) and Parliament(reports to Speaker). If the two cannot implement we should give up all pretence, swallow our pride and forget it.

Kenyans don’t need these bodies as they are toothless bulldogs with no value addition :
• Commission on the implementation of the constitution
• Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission - KACC
• Ombudusman
• Commission on Revenue Allocation
If perchance, these commissions are passed, please rename the last Commission on Revenue Generation and Allocation

12. THE KENYAN WE WANT THE KENYA WE WANT
‘No man can be truly free whose liberty is dependent upon the thought, feeling, and action of others, and who has himself no means in his own hands for guarding, protecting, defending, and maintaining that liberty.’ - Frederick Douglass

Kenya needs experts with Solomonian wisdom and not a new constitution to solve its problems. To me the most urgent reform is taming the Kenyan himself. We need values ! Matatus have run amok. They drive in all and from all directions during jams. Mushrooming unplanned and poorly designed buildings are giving the Kenyan sky the ugliest face ever and killing at an alarming frequency. The slum keeps on creeping on. Nairobi is becoming one big slum. Mention the low zenith security has hit and a picture of Sodom and Gomorrah emerges. Can the constitution give us the Kenyan we want rather than the Kenya we want. Forget it. I believe the Kenyan we want is a Kenyan free from ignorance. Asking the Kenyan to discuss the constitution in our current general knowledge is granting us all our wishes. And if wishes were horses beggars would ride. To me nobody seems to be addressing the problems we have. All the elite cadres talk a lot about the problems. I am still waiting to see whether words speak louder than action. And because of the cacophony and tower of babel that Kenyan’s are, the politicians know they can become restive. To avoid this, keep them hopeful by promising everything under the sun, the biggest prize being the constitution. How is it possible to con a nation, whose brains and skills are running institutions and Governments in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and penetrating Congo. Our experts and traders are in Sudan, Ethiopia, Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. How do the four estates manage to treat Kenyan’s like puppets on a string ? We are all on an ‘ego trip’. Dale Carnegie said ‘the greatest desire of all people is to feel important’. My friend says Kenyan’s have ‘an ego the size of a liver’. Simply put, most Kenyan’s think they know too much. They confuse education and information with knowledge. As a result, it is very easy to take them for a ride.
What Kenyan’s need to free themselves from the current suspended animation is general knowledge, the antonym of ignorance. ‘Ignorance’ has too many synonyms which repeating here would break too many proud countrymen hearts. Suffice it to say only civic education can save us.
Who will provide it ? Not the first estate, not the second estate, not the third estate and certainly not the fourth estate ! All are interested parties. All the experts on reforms/NGOs drive four wheel vehicles and are compensated lavishly. They are completely cut off from Wanjiku and her problems and like Hancock’s Lords of Poverty are a shameless money-making and exploitative sham. The other reforms are not tied to the constitution, expect it to be dysfunctional if it ever sees light of day. Didn’t the IIEC Chairman say his Commission has no powers to deal with politicians and electoral malpractices, meaning IIEC is a reformed ECK with a new name and new officials but no new powers. Kudos to electoral reforms ! So who will civic-educate the cacophonous Kenyan ? Only himself ! Sample Oscar Wilde in The Soul of Man “In old days men had the rack. Now they have the press. That is an improvement certainly. But still it is very bad, and wrong, and demoralising. Somebody - was it Burke? - called journalism the fourth estate. That was true at the time, no doubt. But at the present moment it really is the only estate. It has eaten up the other three. The Lords Temporal(rich) say nothing, the Lords Spiritual(clergy) have nothing to say, and the House of Commons(parliament) has nothing to say and says it. We are dominated by Journalism.
Wishing all Kenyans happy constitution making !



BLOGGERS MERRY CHRISTMAS !


Wednesday, March 11

BLOOD AND TEARS
A mish mash of rubbish, my Diary, so where is Wanjohi Ributhi of "I will strike you until you are admitted in ward 4. As a youngster I didn't know what ward 4 was all about. It's only later in life when I realised the worker was talking about an emergency ward ! But my cousin and friend later killed a man. He was working in a butchery. The poor fellow took "ngimutu" - soup with lots of coagulated blood and refused to pay or had no money. My cousin rushed into the butchery, came back with a butcher's knife and stabbed the poor fellow to death. It was too fast for the fellow to realise the danger he was in.Nice day's before the destruction of trees. At least in april you could feel the beauty of the long rains the floods notwithstanding. It was fun laced with outright danger crossing streams and rivers. Farmers read the weather and knew when to plant. My Mom was expert number 1. In my own small way I learnt how to read the rain if I had to go to school. It was simple. After that breakfast of sweet potatoes, roasted if you like, all dressed up and ready to go to school. Then suddenly it's raining cats and dogs. The decision was simple. Wait for ten minutes. If the rain stops, go to school. Rush to school more like it. If the rain does not stop, rush to school. Funny enough if you rushed into the rain, after ten minutes the rain would be gone. However if you waited for the rain to stop, you would miss school that day for it wouldn't stop ! So we were not scared of rain. For even if you walked in rain and arrived in school water flowing wet, somehow it never affected you. Hence small boys would dance in glee and chant, " Mbura ura, tutorie maria ma njuguini".

Thoughts. Flashes through my mind. Memories bitter sweet, but memories all the same. Sweet memories. I stare in wonderment, on what was, or what would have been. Supposing I had asked the nymph from the ocean to marry me. Would she have agreed ? If she had, would we have had children ? Would they have been sons or daughters ? According to tradition fathers or mothers ? Brothers or sisters ? What would they have become ? Mama wake up, early morning, to find her son, dead on the gallery. When she asked, nobody answered, he was my only son she said....He could have been a dreadler, he could have been a wailer, he could have been a jailer, he could have a sailor, aha aha aha ahaaaaaaaaaaa !





BLOGGERS HAPPY NEW YEAR !



Friday, December 29

BLOOD AND TEARS
A mish mash of rubbish, my Diary, so where is Wanjohi Ributhi of "I will strike you until you are admitted in ward 4. As a youngster I didn't know what ward 4 was all about. It's only later in life when I realised the worker was talking about an emergency ward ! But my cousin and friend later killed a man. He was working in a butchery. The poor fellow took "ngimutu" - soup with lots of coagulated blood and refused to pay or had no money. My cousin rushed into the butchery, came back with a butcher's knife and stabbed the poor fellow to death. It was too fast for the fellow to realise the danger he was in.

Nice day's before the destruction of trees. At least in april you could feel the beauty of the long rains the floods notwithstanding. It was fun laced with outright danger crossing streams and rivers. Farmers read the weather and knew when to plant. My Mom was expert number 1. In my own small way I learnt how to read the rain if I had to go to school. It was simple. After that breakfast of sweet potatoes, roasted if you like, all dressed up and ready to go to school. Then suddenly it's raining cats and dogs. The decision was simple. Wait for ten minutes. If the rain stops, go to school. Rush to school more like it. If the rain does not stop, rush to school. Funny enough if you rushed into the rain, after ten minutes the rain would be gone. However if you waited for the rain to stop, you would miss school that day for it wouldn't stop ! So we were not scared of rain. For even if you walked in rain and arrived in school water flowing wet, somehow it never affected you. Hence small boys would dance in glee and chant, " Mbura ura, tutorie maria ma njuguini".




BLOGGERS HAPPY NEW YEAR !


Wednesday, December 20

LORDS OF THE NGOS

Story extract from The Leader, issue No. 0072 Dec.15-Dec21, 2006. Reach them at: theleader@royalmedia.co.ke since they dont have a website.

So long, farewell, I want to say goodbye(sound of music)……cause I ‘m leaving, on a jet plane, I don’t know when I’ll be back again, oh babe how I hate to go(John Denver)………
Welcome to the world of the blue eyed girls and boys of the Kenya NGOs. They control a Shs 100 billion eye-popping welfare(farewell) industry, which would make our cash hungry MPs green with envy. Their’s are sleek hands, that grip the industry tighter than barnacles. They are less than ten. They drive the latest cars and live in plush upmarket estates in Nairobi. They spend most of their time in the air, crisscrossing the globe from one Western capital to the other. In the little time when they are in the country, they operate secretly, holding night meetings in exclusive hotels where they cut deals with each other. Welcome once again to the world of the cartel that determines who receives the Shs.100 billion plus from donors in the country. Below are our subject and their flagships.

Kenyans here we come:
Davinder Lamba:
Co-convener NCEC
Mazingira Institute(lobby with consultancy status with UNEP)


Pheroze Nowrogee:
Co-convener NCEC
Daughter Binaifer Director Kenya Initiative at the Open Society International(OSI)


Prof Edward Akong’o Oyugi:
Social Development Network(SODNET)
Kenya Social Forum
Convenor of the Commission on Content and Methodology –World Social Forum

Betty Murungi:
Director Urgent Action Fund-Africa
Consultant Rights and Democracy of Canada
Director Kenya Human Rights Commission
Board member Kituo Cha Katiba
Board member Public Law Institute
Board member Women Initiative for Gender Justice
Board member Coalition for Women’s Human Rights in Conflict Situations
Dr Willy Mutunga:
East African Human Rights Institute
Kituo Cha Katiba(Kampala)
Director Rights and Democracy of Canada
Works for FORD Foundation
Board Member KHRC
4Cs
Prof. Makau Mutua:
Kenya Human Rights Commission in the US.
Chairman- Kenya Human Rights Commission
Board Member NCEC
Transparency International, Kenya
Director Human Rights Center, US
Director Center for Transitional Justice
Sits on the Boards of dozens International NGOs
Maina Kiai:
Chairman Kenya National Commission on Human Rights



Oduor Ong’wen:
Econews
Social Development Network
African Forum and Network for Debt and Development (AFRODAD)
Southern and Eastern African Trade Information and Negotiations Institute(SEATINI)
Third World Network(TWN)
Human Rights Watch Africa
Kenya Social Forum
Kenya Debt Relief Network(KENDREN)
Resource Mobilisation Coordinator–World Social Forum

Joyce Umbima:
Most powerful woman of NGO world in Kenya
Actionaid kitty on democracy
20 billion kitty to promote women agenda in politics by EU, USAID, CIDA, SIDA and UNIFEM
Executive Director of Kenya Alliance for the Advancement of Children Rights before joining Actionaid

Njeri Kabeberi-Kanene:
Executive Director Centre for Multiparty Democracy(CMD)
Board Member Kenya Human Rights Commission

Has any of them ever touched your lives ? Do you know anybody whose life they have touched ? If the answer is yes, and since it is Christmas time “go tell it to the mountains, over the hills and everywhere, that Jesus Christ is born”.

Tuesday, December 19

NAIROBI CITY COUNCIL THE GIANT IN SLUMBER

Nairobi City Council, the giant in slumber, has its first AUDITED accounts in the last ten years. Is this a sign of light at the end of the tunnel ? I believe charity begins at home and Nairobi is the gate to Kenya and therefore our mirror of ourselves and the rest of the country. Nairobi should lead so that the others can follow. The shacks, hobbles and potholes are an insult to the aesthetics. The litter, uncollected garbage leaking sewers etc. affect the environment of which we are part of and ultimately impacts on our performance: the Government, the ministers, the PSs, the Corporates, International bodies etc. Remember it is the headquarters of almost everything ! As long as Nairobi has not put its act together the rest of the country wont. Over to you M. K.

EVEREADY WHIMPER
Where Kengen and Scangroup first day at the bourse was with a bang, yesterday Eveready cut its teeth with a whimper. 13,000 shares were traded at Shs. 11. Second day trading though show that it is NSE that goofed !

MUMIAS SOUTH
Mumias share offer deadline has been extended for 3 days to stave off the possibility of under-subscription. It is the first offer since Kengen to head South. Although some analysts blame delayed Eveready refunds, I doubt this is the main factor. First Mumias is not an IPO and does not conform to the time tested concept of buy at the floor. Secondly it is competing with Eveready and Stanbic Uganda IPO. Treasury and CMA need to start staggering offers to avoid the kind of overlapping that is there at the moment. Note Mumias will start trading on January 30 2007. No one wants to tie their money that long while the same share is trading on the bourse. If you visit any broker now you will realize the interest is on Eveready refunds and Stanbic Uganda IPO. Only the Institutions can save Mumias. This is their chance though. Remember Kengen and the complaint of retail investors overcrowding the gravvy train !

Friday, December 15

AGOA KENYA TKO-ED
The announcement of the extension by the US Congress of African Growth Opportunity Act – AGOA to 2013 is food for retrospection and prospection. In 2003 during a meet the voter gathering I told my MP cum Assistant Minister that the 500,000 jobs could be easily created by taking advantage of AGOA. The fixed gaze he gave me convinced me he had digested my crazy story. I expected he would pass on the message to the powers that be. Four years down the line I can only think of Kenya being TKO-ed out of AGOA. We continue to deal with 67(stand to be corrected) Textile and Clothing items when AGOA has provision for over between 3000-6000 items. What a lost opportunity ! Any correlation between this and the ranking of the Ministry of Trade and Industry as the 7th worst performer? And the little we are doing we seem to be doing it badly.After four years of growth, Kenya's textile and clothing sales to the US fell from $272 million in 2004 to $267 million last year because of increased global competition from more efficient Asian producers.Other impediments include the pre-shipment inspection system that the Kenya Bureau of Standards introduced last year. I hope someone will take advantage of this new window.

Tuesday, November 21

SAFARICOM INTHE NEWS
After the announcement that Safaricom will list on the NSE it continues to grab headlines. The interest in the company will rise as potential shareholders await with bated breath the D-Day. More information expected before CMA approval of their prospectus. Negotiations paving way to the IPO gave the nod to Telkom to pledge 9 per cent of Safaricom shares to borrow some $80 million from a syndicate of local commercial banks to finance its second phase of retrenchment, in which the state-owned company will be putting 6,000 workers on the street. Vodafone wanted an arrangement where the IPO will be jointly managed by two transaction advisers with each party appointing its own transaction adviser. It is not clear whether they got this. To avoid another international competitor entering Safaricom Boardroom Government to take over Telkom stake. Agreed:
1. Government will be the one to drive the IPO.
2. Vodafone plc to sit on the government committee that will steer the Safaricom IPO process.
3. The British investor to continue enjoying pre-emptive rights after the IPO.
4. All other rights that Vodafone has enjoyed under the shareholders agreement to lapse after the IPO.

Eveready progress:
Analysis of the Eveready offer continues(Smart Nation) but not anything new is coming up. Information already available remains a better guide.

Stockbroker passes on:
Pioneer stockbroker Francis Thuo, the owner of Francis Thuo and Partners stockbrokers has passed on. However I note his firm was not on the list of rogue stockbrokers.

Friday, November 17

JUICY OFFERINGS - HERE COMES SAFARICOM
Following the announcement that Safaricom shares will be sold at NSE(today’s Nation), investors are now spoilt for choice with the long queue of juicy offerings in line. These include: Safaricom, Mumias, Kenya RE and Telkom not necessarily in that order.

Safaricom: The performance of the KenGen IPO continues to baffle many and has become a reference point on anything shares. However its reign might now be overtaken by Safaricom. When it comes, the stampede might resemble wildebeest migration in Masai Mara. KenGen attractions included: 1.Name recognition(proximity to prospective investors). 2.Geographical spread of agents(KCBs network). 3. Stability(Government ownership brings sense of security). Safaricom has these plus. Besides recently overthrowing EABL in profit leadership, the company is in the fast expanding ICT industry. Its management seems to understand business is about numbers and continue to penetrate the grassroots.

Mumias: The company has held its own since listing on the exchange and has put smiles to a lot of its investors. Its management has announced ambitious plans: penetrating the Tana delta and acqusition of the ugly ducklings of the sugar industry. Trail blazing if anything and unprecedented in Kenya.

Kenya RE: The company is good on most fundamentals(2003 study) . It has a strong asset base. Its staff complement is also small which is an attraction. However with the coming of Safaricom its attraction has to be behind the big giant queue.

Telkom: I am still not convinced that the proponents are serious on listing. May be they will work some restructuring magic ! However with Safaricom jumping ahead of its limping owner, expect not to hear much about Telkom listing.

NSE rise
The interest in the stock exchange continues to baffle skeptics. They fail to notice that the Government monetary and fiscal policy shifted attraction from treasury bills to the current area of attraction. . The big players, Banks, Insurance Companies and Fund managers look for areas where they can achieve their objectives. The investors therefore shift their funds depending on the attractiveness in terms of return, liquidity and the risk factor.

Secondly money from pension funds and retirement schemes is now remitted regularly and has to find a home.

Third a new savings culture is emerging particularly among the young(from land to other avenues).